Rodger Baker, China's Risky Moment

Rodger Baker, Executive Director, Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics

China's Risky Moment

About the program:

China is, in the modern sense, an empire, a nation at the core of a vast international trading and influence architecture, dependent upon far-flung supply lines and export partners. China has no ability to isolate itself from the world’s troubles, just as the United States cannot rely on the protective barriers of the sea and retreat to its own hemisphere. With international engagement comes international entanglement and dependencies, and thus international responsibilities, even if only to one’s own national security interests. 

Yet the most dangerous time for a rising power is when it is perceived powerful enough economically, militarily, and politically to draw the attention of the status quo powers, yet has not actually achieved the capabilities to live up to the expectations. It is at this moment that China now stands. It has a powerful, largely externally oriented military, but remains reticent to use it for fear of undermining its diplomatic position with much of the developing world. It has a large and growing (though slowing) economy, but this remains mired in internal contradictions and is increasingly being targeted by Western powers, challenging Beijing’s ability to maintain technological parity with the West.

China’s vulnerability leads to hubris, to assertions of greater capabilities and strengths than it actually possesses to reinforce deterrence and coercive power. China believes it has the right to (re-)claim its place among the leading powers of the world, yet feels vulnerable and threatened, and this contradictory sense of destiny and insecurity can convince Chinese leaders to take greater risks, compel them to accelerate down paths that are dangerous, and can ultimately lead to what China vers it seeks to avoid - international confrontation. 

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